BoJ minutes hinting at policy normalization spike yen vol — but JGBs lead the move, not USDJPY.

↳ The yen is repricing carry, not policy.

─── The causal chain ───

Mechanism

Policy normalization tail-risk leak

Affected assets

USDJPY · JGB futures · Yen carry pairs (AUDJPY, NZDJPY) · Gold

Front-run window

JGBs: same session · Carry pairs: 24h

Confirmer

10y JGB ask wall flushes, USDJPY breaks 152 with carry pairs leading

Invalidator

BoJ governor pushes back same week

fxratesjapan

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