Frontberg · Daily Edge
PricingArchive · 04/06
★ Daily Edge
US CPI core m/m above 0.3% prints risk-off — but only when 2y rallies before equities sell. If 2y drops too, it's a fakeout.
↳ Above-trend core m/m only matters if 2y bid first.
─── The causal chain ───
01
Mechanism
Sticky-inflation repricing of front-end curve
02
Affected assets
US2Y · DXY · XAU · USDJPY · S&P futures
03
Front-run window
Bond move: minutes · Equity follow-through: 30–60 min
04
Confirmer
2y +6bps within 5 min of print, gold offered, DXY bid
05
Invalidator
2y rallies but unwinds within 15 min — fade the equity short
macroinflationrates
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